Planning Notes
Each note works one planning problem through an example and says where the method stops.
The release notes said no functional change and the plan moved
A vendor release with no configuration change can still move thousands of plan lines. Why that happens, which differences deserve investigation, and how to build a regression baseline before the next upgrade.
2 November 20269 min readAll Notes
Your planning support queue is three different jobs in one inbox
After go-live, a planning support team gets incidents, questions about correct answers, and configuration changes in one queue. How to separate them, keep the overnight chain running, and staff it.
30 October 20269 min read
Vietnam supply chain planning when the inputs still come over the border
Vietnamese plants run on imported inputs, a moving Tet shutdown and a northern grid that fails in dry years. How to plan a site whose origin file decides its tariff.
29 October 202610 min read
Covering an emissions obligation before the deadline decides the price for you
Carbon credit portfolio management as a forward short position: sizing the obligation, compliance and voluntary in one book, and the abate or buy comparison.
28 October 20269 min read
Mexico nearshoring supply chain planning when the crossing is the longest lead time
Nearshoring moves the factory to Mexico and moves the risk to the crossing, the IMMEX clock and the origin file. What changes in a plan built for ocean freight.
27 October 202610 min read
Feedstock price pass-through when the formula moves the volume
Index-linked contract formulas decide margin timing and pull volume across period boundaries. How lag, share and reference index interact, and how to separate price-driven volume from real consumption.
26 October 202610 min read
Hazardous materials transportation planning when one kilo changes the rules
Hazard classification changes which lanes, carriers and quantities are feasible, usually in steps rather than smoothly. The thresholds, segregation rules and routing limits a planning model has to carry.
23 October 202610 min read
A ninety day product with seventeen usable days
How minimum remaining shelf life clauses shrink the life you can actually sell, and what that does to campaign length, allocation between customers with different clauses, and write-off risk.
22 October 20269 min read
Capture cost is mostly decided before you pick a technology
CCUS project economics start with CO2 concentration in the stream. Three parts with three owners, hub sequencing risk, storage appraisal, and the revenue mix.
21 October 202610 min read
The allergen matrix decides the sequence before the due dates do
How allergen changeover scheduling works when a validated wet clean costs more than any due date, covering the transition matrix, campaign length, carry-over through rework and what precautionary labelling buys.
20 October 202610 min readCell and gene therapy supply chain planning when the batch is one patient
Why safety stock is unavailable when every batch belongs to one named patient, how to size manufacturing slots and the cryogenic shipper fleet, and what queueing does to a vein-to-vein promise.
19 October 202610 min read
Patent cliff planning when the forecast has never seen a cliff
How to plan across a loss of exclusivity: separating price and volume erosion, sizing the final campaign against expiry dating, and meeting a supply obligation you cannot walk away from.
16 October 202610 min readStore clustering when the groups were drawn by region and size
Store clusters built from square footage and region produce ranges that fit no store. How to cluster on demand share instead, how many groups to keep, and when to re-cut them.
15 October 202610 min readNobody builds the hydrogen plant until somebody signs for the molecule
Hydrogen offtake planning as the binding constraint on a project: what breaks the chicken and egg, ammonia conversion costs, and certification that qualifies.
14 October 202610 min readOn shelf availability and the four units that do not exist
Store shelves go empty while the system still shows stock, so replenishment never triggers. How record error, backroom stranding and phantom stock break availability, and what to count first.
13 October 202610 min readWhat supply chain planning outsourcing can take off your desk
A planning job splits into six layers and not all survive being handed out. How to scope the work, write an SLA the provider actually controls, and price the retained team.
12 October 20269 min readWarranty claims forecasting when the recent months are still filling in
Warranty claims arrive months after the failure, so recent cohorts always look better than they are. How to build the development triangle that corrects it and what the corrected numbers feed.
9 October 20269 min readThe two supply chains inside a telecom operator
Telecom supply chain planning across two businesses: rollout demand as a project schedule, device demand on a subsidy calendar, returns, and spares.
9 October 20269 min read
Planning telecom equipment for a few operators that buy in waves
A telecom equipment vendor sells to a handful of operators whose tenders and rollout waves decide demand. How to plan the tender pipeline, call-offs, band variants and long-lead silicon.
9 October 20268 min read
Fibre rollout planning when homes passed is not homes connected
A fibre build runs two flows on different clocks: premises passed on a construction schedule, and connections that follow take-up. Materials, crews and stock for each, and where they collide.
9 October 20268 min readCentralized vs decentralized planning turns on which decisions travel
Where a planning decision should sit depends on whether the information behind it exists in a system or in a phone call. A decision-by-decision test, and what each operating model really costs.
9 October 202610 min readAutomotive supply chain planning when one missing part stops the line
Automotive supply chain planning where one missing part stops the line: exposure two tiers down, sequenced delivery, the order bank, and engineering change.
9 October 20269 min read
Automotive aftermarket planning when the car parc is the forecast
Parts demand comes from registrations six to thirteen years old, which makes the fitment join to vehicles in operation the asset worth maintaining. Where supersession and branch pooling cost you.
9 October 20269 min read
The supplier failure your own receiving data saw first
A supplier's credit score moves months after the signals in your own receiving data. Which transactional indicators lead, how to size the false alarm problem, and what to do when one fires.
8 October 20269 min read
The cheapest barrel is rarely the most profitable one
Crude blend optimization on netback rather than delivered cost: what an assay constrains, two grades worked through, and where the value gets left behind.
7 October 20269 min read
A supply chain stress test only counts when something fails
A supply chain stress test that names a failure threshold rather than a status: how to calibrate shock severity, model correlated outages, and run the test backwards from the failure.
6 October 20269 min read
A digital product passport is only as precise as your batch records
A digital product passport is decided by the granularity of your batch records and the gaps in your bill of materials. What to build now while the delegated acts settle.
5 October 202610 min read
CSRD asks for tonnes and your item master holds cases
What changes under CSRD is that supply chain figures must be reproducible by someone else a year later. The datapoints a planning system can own, and the ones that belong somewhere else.
2 October 202610 min read
Releasing every order at 08:00 does not make the trailer leave earlier
Wave planning decides when work reaches the floor. Working release times back from carrier cut-offs, sizing a wave against the packing drain rate, and when waveless release fits better.
1 October 20269 min read
Rescheduling a marine programme when the chokepoint closes
Tanker scheduling disruption as a priced decision: which commitments survive a chokepoint closure, what the alternatives cost, and how to prepare in advance.
30 September 20269 min read
Half the picking shift is walking and nobody chose the route
Travel dominates manual picking time, yet most sites walk a location sort nobody selected. How pick density picks the routing rule, why batching pays more, and what to measure.
29 September 20269 min read
Demurrage and detention charges arrive weeks after the decision that caused them
Demurrage and detention are generated by appointment capacity, chassis supply and receiving hours. How to forecast the charge, budget its tail, and place the decision where someone can act.
28 September 202610 min read
Forecasting freight rates when the rate moves more than your volume does
Rate levels are close to unforecastable at long horizons while vessel supply is largely known in advance. What to forecast, how to score it honestly, and which decisions it should change.
25 September 20269 min read
Kalman filter demand forecasting and the two variances you have to set
A Kalman filter tracks demand through missing weeks, level shifts and disagreeing data sources. What the two variance parameters control, how to estimate them, and how to read the innovations.
24 September 202610 min read
Measuring methane instead of estimating it
How methane emissions measurement reporting verification reconciles factor based inventories with measured data, and why detection to repair is the metric.
23 September 20269 min read
Time series cross validation when moving the cut-off changes the winner
Rolling origin design decides which forecasting model wins your bake-off. How many origins you need, when to refit, how to pool errors across items, and which comparisons are safe.
22 September 202610 min read
One item, four hierarchies, and none of them were built for planning
Why the product hierarchy inherited from finance or merchandising rarely suits planning, which attributes to store instead of fixed levels, and how to choose the level you forecast at.
21 September 20269 min read
The forecast is in eaches and the order goes out in cases
How unit of measure conversion errors enter a planning run, why a wrong factor hides from every variance check, and the receipt-based test that finds them in an afternoon.
18 September 202610 min read
How to size a take or pay commitment you can actually consume
Why the headline discount tier is often the worst commitment to sign, how to price a take or pay shortfall before agreeing it, and which clauses change the arithmetic.
17 September 20269 min read
Planning demand when the product is a molecule
Energy demand forecasting where joint production, term contracts and no inventory buffer break standard method. What transfers, and where scenarios take over.
16 September 20269 min readWhat the incoterm on your purchase order does to your inventory and lead time
How to read the incoterm on a purchase order as a planning parameter: which lead time legs you own, when in-transit stock becomes yours, and where cargo risk sits.
15 September 202610 min read
Tail spend management when running the event costs more than it saves
Most tail spend is too small to source competitively, and the arithmetic proves it. Where the break-even sits, which mechanisms move it, and why spend is the wrong ranking variable.
14 September 20268 min read
Make or buy analysis and the fixed cost that does not leave
Standard cost includes overhead that stays behind when the volume goes, so most make or buy analysis compares the wrong two numbers. How to rebuild it on avoidable cost and break-even volume.
11 September 20269 min read
Testing a planning system when the right answer is a judgement
Planning system testing in three layers: exact arithmetic identities, properties that hold whatever the numbers are, and comparison to a known baseline.
10 September 20269 min read
Choosing which localisation projects to fund when the budget closes at forty
Localization portfolio prioritization as a constrained selection problem: what to maximise, the inputs that decide the answer, and how sequencing changes it.
9 September 20269 min read
Separating a supply chain is a countdown to the day the TSA ends
Standing up planning for a business being sold, when the item master has one hierarchy, a shared plant serves both owners, and the transitional service agreement has an end date.
8 September 20269 min read
Moving volume off an incumbent without dropping a week of supply
Sequencing a move off an incumbent so supply holds through the crossover, covering tooling title and transferability, the qualification calendar, the bridge buy arithmetic and the wind-down clauses that decide the cost.
7 September 20269 min read
What drum buffer rope actually asks of the release desk
Drum buffer rope governs release from the constraint and reads buffer penetration daily. This covers the release arithmetic, the protective capacity it assumes, and what changes when the bottleneck moves.
4 September 20269 min read
Product substitution planning when the premium grade fills a standard order
Why chained substitution rules have to terminate, what a downgrade really costs once the premium item is tight, and the three fields that stop a substitution corrupting both forecasts.
3 September 20269 min read
Why pushing berth utilisation higher makes the queue worse than you expect
Terminal and berth scheduling on the queueing curve: why the last few points of utilisation cost so much, demurrage as a partial view, and picking a target.
2 September 202610 min readConstrained supply allocation when every request has already been inflated
How to build a rationing rule from facts of record, defend it to a buyer without publishing the weights, and stop the shortage from rewriting the demand history it rationed.
1 September 20268 min read
Demand driven material requirements planning and the lead time it actually removes
Decoupling points, buffer zone arithmetic and the lead time claim, tested against a well parameterised MRP carrying the same stock, so you can tell which part of the gain is real.
31 August 20268 min read
Distribution requirements planning and the demand your own network creates
Why a source plant sees one 350 unit week and four empty ones, how the same arithmetic run at every shipping point makes that demand knowable, and when reorder points win.
28 August 20268 min read
What the master production schedule settles before anything explodes
How forecast consumption and the demand time fence turn a demand plan into a buildable statement, the two ways that arithmetic goes wrong, and what the schedule owes order management.
27 August 20268 min read
The commodity exposure that never reaches the treasury system
Commodity hedging exposure has to be measured before a ratio means anything. The exposure inventory, where unintended positions live, and basis risk you keep.
26 August 202610 min readMaterial requirements planning does exactly what you told it to do
Why an MRP run rewrites orders that were fine last week, how lot sizing creates the lumpiness it was meant to absorb, and which dampener to reach for first.
25 August 20268 min readThe orders arrived and the forecast never moved
Forecast consumption decides how orders net against the demand plan inside the execution window. How the consumption windows misfire, where double counting hides, and what to reconcile weekly.
24 August 202610 min readRun the bake-off on your own history before you sign anything
A supply chain planning proof of value protocol: the history to supply, rolling origin folds, the two baselines to require, and how results get flattered.
23 August 20269 min read
Forecasting your own shipments teaches the model your ordering habits
Sell-in vs sell-out forecasting: the distortions inside shipment history, building the inventory bridge to consumption, and working with partial visibility.
23 August 20269 min readThe 2027 deadline that turns a planning decision into an ERP project
SAP APO end of life alternatives set against the 31 December 2027 maintenance date, the four viable paths, and the custom logic count that decides them.
23 August 20269 min read
Four ways the standard safety stock formula quietly lies to you
Four assumptions inside the standard safety stock calculation break in ordinary conditions, each in a direction that costs money. Which one to fix first.
23 August 20268 min read
Separating the three things a promotion does to demand
Promotion uplift modelling separates incremental volume from pull-forward and cannibalisation, starting with the baseline and the counterfactual under it.
23 August 20269 min readTwo questions that separate probabilistic forecasting from a wider confidence band
Two tests separate probabilistic demand forecasting from a wider confidence band: whether lead time is random, and whether the output carries its economics.
23 August 20268 min read
Cracker economics when the co-products decide the answer
Petrochemical margin optimisation when co-products carry a third of revenue: the three quantities called margin, feed choice, severity and transfer price.
23 August 20269 min read
Where to hold the buffer, once you accept you cannot hold it everywhere
Multi-echelon inventory optimization stops every node buffering the same variability: guaranteed service, stochastic service, and the inputs that decide it.
23 August 20269 min read
Building an LNG delivery programme that survives contact with February
LNG supply planning as an inventory problem at both ends: what a slipped slot costs in days of tank, diversion economics, and regasification slot rules.
23 August 20269 min read
Half your catalogue does not sell often enough for a normal forecast
Intermittent demand forecasting for the part of a catalogue that sells rarely: classify first, Croston and its successors, and why the usual metrics fail.
23 August 20269 min readWhen the regional forecasts do not add up to the national one
Hierarchical forecast reconciliation when regional and national numbers disagree: what bottom-up and top-down discard, and what minimum trace uses instead.
23 August 20269 min read
Replenishing a forecourt network one compartment at a time
Fuel retail supply one compartment at a time: the tank with a random drain, what a drop costs per litre, fixed delivery days, and wet stock reconciliation.
23 August 202610 min readThirty-three forecasting models, and the four questions that pick one
Forecasting model selection by pedigree: which data shapes each model family was built for, four questions that narrow the list, and where ensembles cost you.
23 August 20269 min readSome demand is not forecastable, and the number proves it before you buy
Forecastability measured before you buy: the naive baseline floor, how error explodes as the grain gets finer, and what an accuracy quote without one hides.
23 August 20268 min readScoring every pair of hands that touches the forecast
Forecast value add scored stage by stage against actuals: how to read a negative stage, the four measurement mistakes, and what changes once people see it.
23 August 20269 min read
Your sales history is missing the demand you could not serve
Censored demand forecasting recovers the sales a stockout hid, why the loop keeps shrinking the buffer, four recovery methods, and the flags they need.
23 August 20267 min readSix questions that tell you whether an AI agent is an agent
Six buyer questions that separate an agentic AI supply chain product from relabelled automation, covering guardrails, audit records and measurement.
23 August 202610 min readMoving trade spend to the events that returned
Trade spend allocation as a reallocation problem: moving budget toward measured returns, the patterns that recur, and the supply check before it is set.
22 August 20269 min readDeciding what to absorb when landed cost moves again
Tariff cost pass-through pricing decided per item and channel, what has to be true of landed cost first, and why the supply consequence belongs in it.
22 August 202610 min read
A scenario that does not move cash is a slide
Supply chain scenario planning that moves cash: overlay scenarios instead of copies, financial measures declared in the model, committing the winner.
22 August 20269 min read
Nobody files a ticket saying they stopped trusting the system
Supply chain planning implementation failure is quiet: a planner finds three wrong recommendations and the work moves back to a spreadsheet. What to check.
22 August 20269 min read
The network was designed for a business that no longer exists
Supply chain network design as capacitated facility location: the costs that never enter the model, service as a constraint, and the transition it ignores.
22 August 202610 min read
What actually changes when sales and operations planning becomes integrated business planning
S&OP vs IBP in operational terms: a financial reconciliation that closes, the gap as an owned object, scenarios before the meeting, named assumptions.
22 August 20269 min read
The ramp is the part of a wind forecast that costs you money
Renewable generation forecasting scored on averages and sold into markets pricing extremes: the power curve, ramps, aggregation and probabilistic output.
22 August 20269 min read
Category-average elasticity is why the price move surprised you
Price elasticity by pack and channel: where the spread comes from, the bias in the standard log-log regression, and why cross-price often dominates it.
22 August 202610 min read
Where your load forecast error actually settles
Power demand forecasting across four horizons: the temperature response, why scoring with weather known flatters the number, and settlement arithmetic.
22 August 20269 min read
The assumptions nobody wrote down are the ones that broke the plan
Planning assumptions management with a scored ledger: what belongs in it, how to score entries next cycle, and how to keep it small enough to survive.
22 August 20269 min readThe order date is a decision, and lead time variance is what makes it hard
Lead time variability drives more inventory than demand noise: demand over lead time, why an ocean right tail breaks normality, and the order date.
22 August 20269 min readCheck the rest of the network before you raise a purchase order
Inventory rebalancing checks the network sideways before a purchase order is raised: consolidating transfer candidates, the obstacles, and when to buy.
22 August 20269 min readWhy the plan the system published cannot be built
Finite capacity planning against an MRP run that assumes infinite capacity: what a constrained solve adds, one shared constraint set, and the data to fix.
22 August 20269 min read
What a daily signal can fix, and what it cannot
Demand sensing is a latency upgrade rather than an accuracy one. The five mechanics, where the value lands, and the horizon at which the correction decays.
22 August 20269 min read
The consensus number everyone agrees to and nobody believes
A consensus forecasting process works when the room argues about assumptions rather than the number, and when padding is measured before it is managed.
22 August 20269 min read
Where to lift bunkers when the cheapest port is out of the way
Bunker fuel procurement as three decisions in one purchase: the greedy lifting rule, the cost of deviating for a cheaper port, and ISO 8217 as a constraint.
22 August 20269 min read
Promising a date you can actually hit
Available to promise as a netting calculation against the master schedule: what to do when supply is short, three allocation policies, and re-promising.
22 August 20269 min readVendor managed inventory hands you a decision you have to be better at
Vendor managed inventory moves the replenishment decision to the supplier. What has to be agreed, why your own stock can rise, and the data it depends on.
21 August 20269 min read
Finding the lines where a human touch adds nothing
Touchless planning starts by measuring which lines a human touch improves. Finding the segment, the guardrails, a staged rollout, and what to watch once on.
21 August 20269 min read
What a digital twin tells you that the optimiser cannot
A supply chain digital twin adds the weekly clock an optimiser leaves out: deliberate disruption runs, recorded seeds, and honest replication counts.
21 August 20269 min readSupplier collaboration starts with a number your supplier will believe
Supplier collaboration works once the forecast you send carries a commitment. How to separate forecast, plan and reservation, and what should come back.
21 August 20269 min read
The reorder points nobody has touched since go-live
Replenishment parameters set at go-live and never revisited: which ones exist, who may change them, trigger based review, and the audit that finds the worst.
21 August 20269 min readHold the generic version as long as the customer will wait
A postponement strategy moves the decoupling point later so variants pool: where the arithmetic holds, the three forms, and why product design decides it.
21 August 202610 min readFour hundred exceptions and an hour to work them
Planning exception management when the queue is longer than the hour available: setting thresholds by consequence, grouping causes, ageing, and clearance.
21 August 20269 min read
The long lead item you ordered for a well that moved
Oilfield materials planning against a schedule that moves monthly: where newsvendor logic justifies the stock, Palm's theorem on spares, remote surplus.
21 August 202610 min readThe joint business plan that gets agreed in one room and executed in another
Joint business planning fails when commercial teams commit to volumes supply never saw. How to separate commitments from ambitions and sequence the cycle.
21 August 20269 min read
What a place in the grid connection queue is actually worth
What a place in the grid connection queue is worth: Little's Law on the wait, why one withdrawal stalls everyone behind it, and the cost of delay.
21 August 20269 min read
Where you would build if you owned nothing
Greenfield analysis deletes the estate and asks where sites would sit on the demand map: the centre of gravity, choosing k, and the cost of your own history.
21 August 20269 min read
Sequencing a drilling programme when every move costs a week
Drilling rig scheduling as an asymmetric travelling salesman problem where the move cost dominates, plus skewed durations and what a rig contract buys.
21 August 20269 min read
Distributor reporting that a principal can actually plan with
Distributor reporting to principal planners fails on late, unmapped files. The fields needed, the inventory identity check, and what the principal owes back.
21 August 20269 min readCollaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment usually stops at the data exchange
Why collaborative planning forecasting replenishment stalls after the data exchange, the four commitments a working arrangement needs, and how to test yours.
21 August 20269 min read
What a battery cycle costs before you decide to take it
Battery storage dispatch with the cycle cost priced in: the spread that has to clear, why the revenue stack competes with itself, and hindsight backtests.
21 August 20269 min readNine cells and a different policy in each one
ABC XYZ analysis that changes a policy rather than producing a deck: what hangs off each of the nine cells, where to store it, and when to re-segment.
21 August 20269 min read
Scope growth is the turnaround risk that every other risk feeds
Scope growth in turnaround planning: the cost of a day, three sources of scope, why schedules built on expected durations finish late, and discovery.
20 August 20269 min readRanking risk by what it costs rather than by how loud it is
Supply chain risk prioritisation by consequence rather than event severity: simulating criticality first, three refinements, and making an alert actionable.
20 August 20269 min readThe fields that break planning do not have an owner
Supply chain master data governance for the fields that break planning: ownership per field, validation at creation, standing checks, and the defect position.
20 August 20269 min read
The single source hiding behind a perfectly healthy supplier
Sub-tier supplier risk hides behind healthy tier one scorecards. Building the map without full disclosure, entity resolution, and acting on a concentration.
20 August 202610 min read
The gap between the monthly refinery plan and what the schedulers actually run
Refinery scheduling against a monthly plan built in averages: the tank coupling the plan cannot see, the pooling problem, and giveaway priced per day.
20 August 20269 min readRebate management when the tier is worth more than the order
Rebate management fails on structure before administration: why a retroactive tier creates a cliff, what the accrual costs, and how to price the increment.
20 August 20268 min readDesigning a price pack ladder that does not collapse into the middle
Price pack architecture is a design decision before it is an analysis. How to space the rungs, price the gaps, and stop the middle pack absorbing the ladder.
20 August 20269 min readWhat a local content percentage actually buys the economy
Local content economic impact comes from the Leontief inverse rather than the headline percentage. Direct, indirect and induced effects, and what it assumes.
20 August 20269 min readKey account planning when one customer is a third of the volume
The account plan and the item forecast cross rather than nest, so nothing forces them to agree. The grain that does, and what one thirty percent customer adds to the buffer.
20 August 202610 min read
The inventory target in the board pack, and where the cut actually lands
Inventory working capital targets that land where nobody chose: why a uniform percentage misallocates, the service frontier, and four kinds of stock.
20 August 202610 min readRaising price to ration short supply, and what it costs later
Under a binding supply constraint, price rations at no volume cost, so the number to estimate is the market clearing price. Weigh the contribution against the customers who qualify a second supplier.
20 August 202610 min read
What the distributor margin is actually paying for
Stacked tier margins compound, so a distributor margin structure has to be built backwards from the shelf. Five functions sit inside the percentage and only two scale with your price.
20 August 20269 min readHow many item-locations one planner can actually own
Demand planner workload has no benchmark. Where the time goes when measured, span of control as an equation, touch rate, and what to take off the desk first.
20 August 20269 min readPicking the order month when the currency moves faster than demand
Currency timing purchasing decisions with the forward curve rather than a house view: what trades off, why buying early usually fails, and hedging instead.
20 August 20269 min readSome of your largest customers cost more to serve than they pay
A cost to serve analysis allocated as a percentage of revenue can only reproduce the gross margin ranking, so the drivers have to be counts somebody measured.
20 August 20269 min readChannel conflict pricing and the arbitrage you built yourself
Channel conflict pricing starts with arithmetic: when the gap between two of your own net prices beats the cost of moving goods between them, the leak opens.
20 August 20268 min readWhat planning actually controls inside the cash conversion cycle
What planning controls inside the cash conversion cycle: turning a week of coverage into a number finance uses, where to measure it, and the payables trap.
20 August 202610 min readThe pick face still reflects the range you sold two years ago
Warehouse slotting past velocity ranking: the cube per order index, order affinity, the golden zone against lifting limits, and what a move list costs.
19 August 202610 min readYour warehouse labour plan is last week's rota with a new date on it
Warehouse labour planning converts a demand plan into hours using lines rather than units, an intraday profile, and a flexible layer ranked by notice period.
19 August 20269 min read
The truck leaves with air in it and the dock crew can tell you why
Truck load building as bin packing with side conditions: the freight density that decides whether weight or cube binds, and how to measure fill honestly.
19 August 20269 min readOutsourcing the warehouse did not outsource the forecast
3PL capacity planning after the warehouse is outsourced: the volume band on the invoice, forecasting in the provider's units, and what priority costs at peak.
19 August 202610 min readMost supply chain control towers are dashboards with an alarming name
A supply chain control tower that ends at a coloured icon has automated two stages of four. What an exception queue needs, and why the loop has to write back.
19 August 20269 min read
Planning service parts for machines that have not broken yet
Service parts planning driven by the installed base rather than the part's own history: the two lifecycle turns, the all-time buy, and fill rate at the van.
19 August 202610 min readYour sales territory design was balanced three years ago
Sales territory design drifts after the project ends. What balance means, the compactness trade, the price of moving an account, and reviewing on a cadence.
19 August 20269 min readWhat sales and operations execution is allowed to change
Sales and operations execution as a decision rights problem: what the weekly forum may change inside the time fence, and what it has to escalate instead.
19 August 20269 min readWhy route optimization keeps losing to the route your drivers already know
Why route optimization loses to the routes drivers already know: what the solver solves, what master routes buy, adherence, and unmeasured service times.
19 August 20269 min readReturns are a demand stream running backwards
Returns forecasting as a convolution of sales and a lag distribution fitted from your own history, split by cause, with grading modelled as a lead time.
19 August 20269 min readWhat process mining finds when you point it at an industrial operation
Process mining industrial operations against the event log: where it earns its keep, findings that recur, conformance checking, and what a deviation means.
19 August 20269 min read
The freight tender that saved eight percent and cost you your capacity
Freight procurement judged after the tender rather than at award: what an unenforceable rate is worth, the split award case, and routing guide compliance.
19 August 20269 min read
Fleet sizing against a peak that happens four weeks a year
Fleet sizing against a peak that lasts four weeks a year: asymmetric error costs, variability over volume, own against contract or spot, and the mix decision.
19 August 20269 min readFlaring reduction economics when the pipeline never reached the site
Flaring reduction economics at a site with no tie-in: routine versus safety volume, the options ranked by build cost, and valuing what you actually recover.
19 August 202610 min read
Pricing the delivery time windows you already promise
Pricing the delivery time windows you already give away: what window width costs, promise against plan, letting customers choose, and measuring arrival times.
19 August 202610 min read
A temperature excursion is an inventory event and your planning system never hears about it
Cold chain management as an inventory problem: writing an excursion to the batch status planners read, mean kinetic temperature, and FEFO with a tolerance.
19 August 202610 min readPredictive maintenance on an asset integrity programme starts with the shutdown date
Asset integrity predictive maintenance past a code interval: what each step costs, rotating against static equipment, and the turnaround scope it feeds.
19 August 202610 min readWhy quota-driven hiring hits the nationalisation number and then loses it
Workforce localization planning as a stock and flow problem: why quota hiring buys attrition, which roles are constrained, and retention at eighteen months.
18 August 202610 min readSupplier onboarding at scale when qualification takes nine months
Supplier onboarding at scale as a throughput problem: where the queue forms, what Little's Law says about pipeline, risk tiering, and measuring the funnel.
18 August 202610 min read
Seed and planting planning when this year's sales were decided three years ago
Seed and planting planning across a three year multiplication cycle: contracted area, germination thresholds, carryover risk and variety life cycles.
18 August 20269 min readSAP IBP implementation and the planning area decision you make in week three
An SAP IBP implementation turns on decisions made early: planning area structure, the time profile, key figure disaggregation and how order data arrives.
18 August 20269 min readPick a planning system integration pattern by what a restatement does to it
Choose planning system integration patterns by what a source restatement does to each, then check idempotency, replay and the outbound direction.
18 August 20269 min readThe semantic layer is where a planning data warehouse earns its keep
A planning data warehouse earns its keep in the semantic layer: conformance decisions, versioned hierarchies and measure definitions written in sentences.
18 August 20269 min read
Perishable supply chain planning when shelf life starts in the field
Perishable supply chain planning treats shelf life as a budget spent from harvest, with thermal history, ripening control and lot allocation as levers.
18 August 20269 min readOracle supply chain planning cloud rollouts turn on the collections design
Oracle supply chain planning cloud deployments turn on collections design: what gets collected, how often, and what a back dated correction does to it.
18 August 20269 min readAn Excel planning migration that the planners will agree to
An Excel planning migration succeeds when it is sequenced by value: what to keep, what to drop, the reconciliation contract and the workbook owner.
18 August 20269 min readERP versus planning system, and the write-back nobody specified
ERP vs planning system boundaries come down to who owns each field. The four contested ones, and how to specify the write back and the override policy.
18 August 20269 min readThe twenty requirements that actually separate demand planning software
Demand planning software selection fails on long requirement lists. The twenty areas where products differ, plus demo scripts and reference questions.
18 August 20269 min read
What a crude differential is compensating for
Crude differentials pricing beyond last month plus an adjustment: what the differential compensates for, regional netbacks, and the slow feedback loop.
18 August 20269 min read
Crop yield forecasting and the number you cannot have at planting
Crop yield forecasting improves in steps through a season. How area estimation, method combination and asymmetric decisions change the number you use.
18 August 20269 min readContract intelligence and the obligation nobody has read since signature
Contract intelligence energy operators can act on: the obligation register, why extraction is hard here, provenance as a requirement, and human review.
18 August 202610 min read
Commodity procurement timing and the coverage policy nobody wrote down
Commodity procurement timing set by how long your selling price is fixed: separating the price decision from the physical buy, and scoring the buyer.
18 August 20269 min read
Agricultural supply planning when the harvest decides how much you get
Agricultural supply planning after harvest: intake capacity, bin segregation, drying limits and the carry decision that fixes what the year can sell.
18 August 20269 min readSee DemandLabs on Your Own Data
A 45-minute walkthrough with a solution architect.