Automotive Aftermarket Planning
Aftermarket and service parts businesses stock a deep catalog for vehicles on the road, and many part numbers sell rarely at any one branch. DemandLabs forecasts the long tail on methods built for it and sets stock by service target across DCs and branches.
What Shapes Aftermarket and Service Parts Planning
Aftermarket demand comes from vehicles already sold, and the catalog adds part numbers with each new model year.
Vehicles in Service Drive Demand
Parts demand follows the vehicles on the road by make, model, year and age. A brake pad or filter sells little while its vehicles are new, and more as they age and cover more miles.
A Long Tail at Every Branch
Each new model adds part numbers to the catalog, and a branch can go weeks between sales of many of them. A forecast built for steady sellers reads those gaps badly.
Weather Moves the Season
Batteries fail more in cold snaps, and wiper blades, coolant and air conditioning parts follow the weather. The same week can be busy in one region and quiet in the next.
Solutions for Aftermarket and Service Parts
The DemandLabs applications that fit aftermarket and service parts, and how each one handles the planning.
Service targets are set for each part family, DC and branch, with the stock each one requires shown before it is set. Lateral transfers move slow stock to the branches selling it, with freight and fill-rate gain shown.
Explore inventory optimizationBranch forecasts for slow part numbers use Croston, SBA and TSB, and weather refreshes the near-term number for batteries, wiper blades and other seasonal lines. New part numbers borrow their early curve from look-alike parts.
Explore demand planningWhen a supplier ships short, dealer groups and trade accounts are served by customer tier and contract commitments, and the plan shows the fill rate each will get.
Explore supply planningTariff and freight moves on imported parts reach each part number's landed cost and a recommended price for each trade account. Own-price elasticity is estimated separately for retail buyers and repair shops.
Explore revenue growth managementHow Aftermarket and Service Parts Planning Connects
Each part number links the vehicles it fits to the branches that stock it and the margin it earns.
Part Forecast
- Counter sales
- Trade orders
- Weather
Part Range
- New part numbers
- Look-alike parts
- Slow movers
Network Stock
- Central DC
- Regional DCs
- Branches
Replenishment
- Supplier lead times
- Container loads
- Tariffs
Parts Margin
- Landed cost
- Price by channel
- Stock value
Built for Aftermarket and Service Parts
Aftermarket planning works part number by part number, at the branch where the repair shop buys.
New Part Numbers From Look-Alikes
A part for a new vehicle starts with a launch curve from look-alike parts with similar attributes, before it has history.
Weather in the Near-Term Forecast
Cold snaps and heat waves refresh the near-term forecast for batteries, wipers and cooling parts in the regions they hit.
DCs and Branches in One Solve
Safety stock for each part number is re-solved each week across the central DC, regional DCs and branches as one network.
Landed Cost on Imported Parts
Tariff and freight changes on imported lines reach a recommended price for each trade account in the same cycle.
Planning Notes for Aftermarket and Service Parts
See all notes
Automotive aftermarket planning when the car parc is the forecast
Parts demand comes from registrations six to thirteen years old, which makes the fitment join to vehicles in operation the asset worth maintaining. Where supersession and branch pooling cost you.
9 October 20269 min read
Planning service parts for machines that have not broken yet
Service parts planning driven by the installed base rather than the part's own history: the two lifecycle turns, the all-time buy, and fill rate at the van.
19 August 202610 min read
Half your catalogue does not sell often enough for a normal forecast
Intermittent demand forecasting for the part of a catalogue that sells rarely: classify first, Croston and its successors, and why the usual metrics fail.
23 August 20269 min readAftermarket and Service Parts Planning FAQs
Can DemandLabs forecast parts that sell a few times a year?
Croston, SBA and TSB handle part numbers with long gaps between sales, and each one is scored against your current forecast on past branch sales.
Can stock move between branches before we reorder?
DemandLabs proposes lateral transfers each day from the locations holding surplus, and each move shows its freight cost next to the fill rate it adds.
How much branch sales history do we need?
About 24 months of sales history by branch and part number is enough to start, and the models are backtested on it before go-live.
How long does implementation take?
Eight weeks to the first live cycle for one planning area, with a value review with your CFO in week 10.
See Your Parts Catalog Planned Branch by Branch
A 45-minute walkthrough on your own data.